2012 Kentucky Derby preview
2012 Kentucky Derby preview | Kentucky Derby Bets
Post Time: Saturday, May 5, 6:24 p.m., NBC
Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) explained
Originally Posted on the Washington Post
| Horse | Andrew Beyer’s Analysis | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
AlphaTrainer: Kiaran McLaughlin |
Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai has won almost every important race in the world except the Derby. He has a good chance with this colt, who lost the Wood Memorial by a neck. |
x-xBSF: 98 |
 |
BodemeisterTrainer: Bob Baffert |
After a runaway victory in the Arkansas Derby, he should be favored to give Bob Baffert his fourth Kentucky Derby win. But does he have enough seasoning? The last horse who won without racing at 2 years old was Apollo — in 1882. |
x-xBSF: 108 |
 |
Creative CauseTrainer: Mike Harrington |
Beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe Stakes, then lost Santa Anita Derby by a nose. Consistent, seasoned colt is a serious contender. |
x-xBSF: 102 |
 |
Daddy Long LegsTrainer: Aidan O’Brien |
Won the $2 million UAE Derby in Dubai over a synthetic track in slow time, but his one prior try on dirt in the U.S. was a disaster. |
x-xBSF: N/A |
 |
Daddy Nose BestTrainer: Steve Asmussen |
After being miscast as a grass runner, he won the Sunland Derby in New Mexico with a good speed figure. Strong finisher has the right style for a Derby filled with front-running types. |
x-xBSF: 100 |
 |
Done TalkingTrainer: Hamilton Smith |
Maryland-based colt, winner of the Illinois Derby, is overmatched here, but he’ll be rallying past some of the tired speed horses in the stretch. |
x-xBSF: 85 |
 |
DullahanTrainer: Dale Romans |
Flew past Hansen to capture the Blue Grass Stakes, but that was over a synthetic surface. His ability on dirt is still questionable. |
x-xBSF: 98 |
 |
El PadrinoTrainer: Todd Pletcher |
Looked like a prime contender early in the winter, but he appears to be on the downgrade. After Florida Derby loss, he’s Pletcher’s second-stringer. |
x-xBSF: 100 |
 |
GemologistTrainer: Todd Pletcher |
Pletcher trainee has won all five of his starts, most recently the Wood Memorial. His speed figures aren’t dazzling, but he has room to improve. |
x-xBSF: 98 |
 |
HansenTrainer: Mike Maker |
Striking white colt is a fan favorite as well as the reigning champion of his generation, but the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance looks too far for him. |
x-xBSF: 96 |
 |
I’ll Have AnotherTrainer: Doug O’Neill |
Obscure jockey Mario Gutierrez gets a shot at glory after winning Santa Anita Derby in an upset over Creative Cause. |
x-xBSF: 96 |
 |
LiaisonTrainer: Bob Baffert |
His 3-year-old record looks dismal, but Baffert says he likes Churchill Downs and is training well. |
x-xBSF: 92 |
 |
OptimizerTrainer: D. Wayne Lukas |
With Mark Valeski’s defection, Wayne Lukas’s colt gets into the field and gives trainer a shot at his fifth Derby win. But he looks hopelessly overmatched. |
x-xBSF: 91 |
 |
ProspectiveTrainer: Mark Casse |
Victory in the slow Tampa Bay Derby doesn’t suggest that he could possibly be a contender here. |
x-xBSF: 90 |
 |
Rousing SermonTrainer: Jerry Hollendorfer |
Plodder hasn’t had much success this year, but longer distance and fast pace may help him. |
x-xBSF: 88 |
 |
SabercatTrainer: Steve Asmussen |
Stretch-runner has been soundly beaten in his two starts this year, but Steve Asmussen — a no-nonsense trainer — says he’ll run the race of his life Saturday. |
x-xBSF: 92 |
 |
Take Charge IndyTrainer: Patrick Byrne |
Colt will get plenty of support with three-time Derby winner Calvin Borel aboard, but he won’t get an unpressured early lead as he did in winning the Florida Derby. |
x-xBSF: 96 |
 |
TrinnibergTrainer: Bisnath Parboo |
Speedster has won two seven-furlong races and is certain to be the Derby pacesetter, but he’s ill-prepared to run 1 1/4 miles. He’s a good bet to finish last — a distant last. |
x-xBSF: 99 |
 |
Union RagsTrainer: Michael Matz |
Colt narrowly missed winning 2-year-old title, and big things were expected of him at 3. Florida Derby loss was a disappointment, but maybe Michael Matz has him cranked up for a big Derby as he did with Barbaro. |
x-xBSF: 96 |
 |
Went the Day WellTrainer: H. Graham Motion |
After Graham Motion won the ’11 Derby with Animal Kingdom, bettors back him as if he can perform miracles. But this lightly raced colt is no Animal Kingdom. |
x-xBSF: 92
|
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About
Andrew Beyer is an American expert on horse race betting who designed what has become known as the Beyer Speed Figure.
In the early 1970s, while working for the Washington Daily News, Beyer did extensive work on the concept of speed figures and wrote books that helped popularize their use. By calculating variables such as the track conditions and the horse's time, Beyer speed figures give a measure of how fast a horse was in a given race. This number can then be used to compare a given horse against its competition in an upcoming race, despite the fact that the horses have all run in different races, at different tracks, and are different calibers of horses. Speed figures have come into general usage and many racing forms include them in their publications.
Andrew Beyer is the author of four books on racing and has been The Washington Post's horse racing columnist since 1978. He attended Harvard University but a final exam away from completing his course work he made a decision to attend the Belmont Stakes (same day as the final exam!).
The rest, as they say, is history.