Handicapping the Holy Bull S

While most everyone is talking about the Sunshine Millions which are great races but all I care about this weekend are the 3 year olds running Gulfstream Park on January 30^th in race 10 and handicapping the Holy Bull S.

It’s inevitable; one of the following horses will win the 2011 Holy Bull Stakes:

Of course what everyone wants to know is who is worthy of dropping a couple dollars on and who is just another pretender looking to steal some of our hard earned dollars and out of this race before they even hit the gate.

Holy Bull S. Entries not worth the time it will take me to tell you why they don’t have a shot:

• Sweet Ducky – Only win was Seton Hall University S. over 1 mile which I think is the maximum distance for this horse. Last race was over 1 1/16 where Sweet Ducky was placed well coming out of the turn so jockey Joe Bravo did his job but the horse showed nothing down the stretch and was blown away by better distance horses like Gourmet Dinner and Decisive Moment.
• Major Gain – Better suited for 1 mile and can’t finish at 1 1/16 miles. Finished third last time out in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. and has finished 2 or more spots in both those races behind Santiva.
• Leave of Absence – Last race was only 6 furlongs and now expects to run and place in a field of practiced 1mile to 1 1/16 horses? I don’t buy it! Closed well in the last start but at only 6 furlongs there is no way I put my money on this horse at this distance in this field. I don’t think he can even reach a mile…
• Ribo Bobo – Last two races were at 7 furlongs and finished behind Manicero in both races. Like the horses listed above, this looks like one last Hail Mary to see if this horse can be anything more than a stakes horse… Ribo Bobo can’t be competitive at this distance.

Holy Bull S. Entries that could finish in the money but not win:

• Dialed In – This horse can fly! In his last race at 6 ½ furlongs he broke slow out of the gate and didn’t show much through the ½ marker but then settled into a groove moving up to 5 lengths back on the straight, took one left handed crack of the whip and hit a whole new gear for the win. Can they clean up his break out of the gate? If so, he has a chance to make this distance in the money.
• Printing Press – Had to run 3 wide last time out vs. Black N Beauty who had the benefit of the rail and the lead wire to wire. Finished 3^rd to Sweet Ducky in the Seaton Hall but I see this horse progressing and could Show at best.

Holy Bull S. Here are the horses that are in it to win it!

• Gourmet Dinner – I blame jockey Sebastian Madrid for Gourmet Dinner being edged out for 3^rd in the CashCall Futurity after taking Gourmet Dinner 5 wide into and around the second turn and 4 wide into the stretch, this is a good horse at 1 1/16 miles but Madrid basically added another ¼ onto the race.
• Black N Beauty – Won last time out wire to wire in an allowance race over 1 mile beating Printing Press and Shadow Warrior. I can see him making it into the money, question is can he find another gear to close out finish with another 1/16 mile added.
• Mucho Macho Man – The only horse in this field who has run 1 1/8 miles and did so finishing second to To Honor and Serve while being clipped from behind by Bandbox. After finishing second twice to To Honor and Serve I see this race as a confidence builder for Mucho Macho Man

Here is how I see this race playing out.

1.       Win – Mucho Macho Man – A win is a win!

2.       Place – Gourmet Dinner – If he isn’t in the money, fire the jockey!

3.       Show – Black N Beauty – Needs to show another gear in the stretch to win.

4.       Printing Press – If someone makes a mistake he will capitalize on it.

5.       Dialed In – SPOILER ALERT! Shouldn’t be there but is my long shot.

Cheers,

Jack.

By Jack McKinney – Daily Racing News Columnist