Louisiana Derby

Louisiana Derby is race 10 at Fair Grounds this Saturday 5:03pm and this is one of the more difficult races we have come across for a while to handicap as already I have heard almost every horse on the card to win or be involved in the money. When the Louisiana Derby takes place we will be 42 days away from the 137^th Kentucky Derby which leaves us in a strange place right now, we have some horses just wrapping up their Kentucky Derby Prep schedule with a win or strong performance. Then we have some that have maybe one more start if they need it depending on what happens this weekend and finally, we have some horses that are looking at two or three starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, have no interest in the Kentucky Derby but are looking for the Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes and have no problem crushing the hopes of those trying to get into the Kentucky Derby.

A few notes and comments for the Louisiana Derby, the Stall barn has everyone at Fair Grounds apparently in a frenzy over Left who is coming off the far end in gate 11 beside Elite Alex. Left needs to get up front fast far worse than Elite Alex does, I don’t think the 12 post phases Calvin Borel or Elite Alex who both like coming from the back. There is also a buzz about Pants On Fire being the rabbit for Nacho Business but unless there is dirty racing (not that there ever is…) isn’t any horse in front of yours the rabbit? Point is I wouldn’t buy allot of stock in all the hubbub this weekend and go with your gut as always. The only bad decision is indecision!

Louisiana Derby Post Positions:

Louisiana Derby – The Pretenders: Horses not worth laying a dollar or two of your hard earned money on.

Populist Politics : Morning Line 30-1 – Populist Politics is a double entry this weekend and I think he belongs in the Crescent City Derby on March 25^th at Fair Grounds instead of the Louisiana Derby as the competition would be familiar for him and he would likely win that race given he was edged out by a nose in the Gentilly S on turf last month. If he can win the Crescent City Derby at 1 1/16^th miles against a softer field then they should look at the Arkansas Derby on April 16^th. Career earnings $104,095. Experience at 1 1/16^th miles on turf. I am pretty sure they will run him in the Crescent City Derby.

Liondrive : Morning Line 50-1 – Liondrive has $50,855. In career earnings and has had three starts in 2011.  Hasn’t done anything of substance in 2011 unless we want to note his last two races in which he has finished dead last in both, most notable was the Risen Star S where nobody had anything good to say about him. Running Liondrive for the 4^th time this year is ridiculous versus a field as great as this one and I hope they do the right thing and scratch him! Has run 1 1/16^th miles on dirt.

Le Mans : Morning Line 20-1 – Le Mans has been four wide going into or in the first turn in both of his races leaving the axe to fall on previous jockey Corey Nakatani who has been replaced by trainer Steve Asmussen in favor of new jockey Garret Gomez who will make his second attempt at straightening out Le Mans. His trouble in the corner is worrisome and he hasn’t raced over one mile yet. $6,480. Has run 1mile on dirt.

Nehro : Morning Line 30-1 – Nehro faced a bunch of nobody’s back on January 15^th at Oaklawn Park in which he finished 7^th by what we will kindly just call a long way! Nehro ran again on February 21^st again at OP where he won in a last to first effort which are always exciting to watch, problem is he did it against a field of nobodies… Career earnings are $25,140 has experience with 1mile on dirt.

Mavericking : Morning Line 20-1 – Mavericking lost to Action Ready back on January 9^th in an allowance at Fair Grounds where Action Ready was simply the better horse. March 12^th ran in the Grindstone Stakes and finished third where he bumped with Action ready who finished 7^th and Mavericking went on for a decent finish. Has improved but be warned, this is not a strong horse that has been blowing out races on the turf, he has a first and third which both came against poor fields and is now switching to dirt. Career winnings $51,352, most of which was earned as a 2yo. Has experience with 1mile on turf.

Louisiana Derby – On the Bubble: Horses that could finish in the money but not win.

Nacho Business : Morning Line 10-1 – Has raced twice in 2011 winning a Maiden Special Weight back on January 30^th at Gulfstream Park at 1 mile on dirt in which he stalked the pace and edged away at the sixteenth pole. I rate the field he faced as poor. Nacho Business then ran on February 28^th facing an average field this time in an allowance also at GP which was 1 1/8^th miles on dirt where he finished 2^nd gaining on the winner as they crossed the finish line which I always blame the jockey for. With $32,010. In winnings he will need to win this race to have a shot at the Kentucky Derby. Did not race in 2010. Has experience at 1 1/8^th miles on the dirt.

Pants On Fire : Morning Line 10-1 – Pants On Fire has run twice in 2011 in two big name races, first was the LeComte Stakes back on January 22^nd versus an average field where Pants On Fire finished second to Wilkinson. Pants On Fire led the entire race going three and two wide in the first turn, set the pace down the backstretch with the jockey holding him back, went wide again coming off the rail on the far turn  then asked to go at the five-sixteenths pole until surrendering the lead between the final sixteenths pole and the finish.  Risen Star Stakes on February 19^th was the last race for Pants On Fire where he met a solid field and finished 6^th where his problems in the corners were exposed! Ran 3 wide in the first turn then 6 wide on the far turn. Career racing earnings are $78,100. Has experience at 1 1/16^th miles on the dirt.

Left : Morning Line 10-1 – Left has two wins this season at Fair Grounds with a Maiden Special Weight on January 29^th and an Allowance on February 26^th in which he defeated stable mate Sour for the win after stalking Sour on the lead with Left passing Sour entering the final furlong. The January race was about a mile on Turf and he did well winning in February on the dirt at 1mile seventy yards so we will see what he can do with his first try at one and one eighths of a mile. Career earnings total $54,000. Experience at 1mile seventy yards on dirt.

Majestic Harbor – Morning Line 12-1 – Majestic Harbor has $40,072 in earnings and has only been raced once in 2011. Back in 2010 his last race was at Churchill Downs on November 27^th against a good field where Majestic Harbor went all the way from tenth to finish third to the winner Shackleford and Ballyclough. . Majestic Harbor then raced at Fair Grounds on February 12^th beating the field wire to wire over 1 mile seventy yards on the dirt. Being lightly raced and progressing each time out he could be interesting.

Louisiana Derby – The Real Deal: Horses that are in it to win it!

Machen : Morning Line 7-2 – Machen has the natural talent but can’t seem to put it together on the track as he is repeatedly unsettled and rank. Machen is all or nothing and I lovem for it because we have seen flashes of speed that I think has been unrivaled this year down the straight and through the finish but the training wheels are off now, most if not all the horses pointing to the Kentucky Derby are polishing up any weaknesses they might have if not already polished and bring their best race each time they hit the track. Edgar S Prado will be the jockey who I think very highly of and think he will get the best that Machen has to offer. Finished 4^th in the Risen Star Stakes behind Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Rogue Romance which lead to the axe for jockey Jamie Theriot. Career winnings are $58,800 which is all from 2011 as he was an unraced 2yo. Experience at 1 1/16^th miles on dirt.

Wilkinson : Morning Line 8-1 – Wilkinson has been on the track twice this season and has a first and third place finishes showing for it. Wilkinson finished third back on January 1^st in an allowance at Fair Grounds, a race that Justin Phillip won at a distance of 1mile seventy yards and Wilkinson decided to run an extra sixteenth by running five wide in the first turn and four wide in the second turn and ended with all three horses in the money bunched up at the finish. Wilkinson next ran in the LeComte Stakes on January 22^nd where he had a nice trip on the rail and overtook Pants On Fire just before the finish line for the win. Note the LeComte S was 1mile forty yards. Career earnings are $105,490. Wilkinson seems to have straightened out since the jockey change of Garret Gomez replacing Robby Albarado. Has experience at 1mile forty yards on dirt.

Mucho Macho Man : Morning Line 9-5 – Mucho Macho Man has finished second to The Factor twice and in the second race had his heel clipped in a race I thought should have gone down to the wire. In the Holy Bull he was bumped hard in the chute and basically Mucho Macho Man and jockey at the time Eibar Coa decided to mail it in and ran a training session. Eibar Coa was injured just before Mucho Macho Man was to run his last race, the Risen Star Stakes and Katherine Ritvo found Rajiv Maragh to be the replacement jockey who fortunately was already familiar with Mucho Macho Man. With Maragh getting the mount, Mucho Macho Man finally was able to show what he can do when he isn’t getting beat up going around the track, delivering the win over a very strong field. Career earnings $310,643.

Elite Alex : Morning Line 6-1 – Elite Alex has had some hype this year but only has a place and a show for his efforts. Last time out in the Southwest Stakes he finished third behind Archarcharch and J P’s Gusto for the 1mile race at Oaklawn Park. Elite Alex has come from the back of the field both times out this year and will need a slow pace to help him out. Career earnings total $55,300. One mile on dirt has been his longest distance to date. Experience at 1mile on dirt.

Here is how I see this playing out:

1)      Win: Mucho Macho Man

2)      Place: Machen

3)      Show: Wilkinson

4)      Wild Card: Elite Alex

Mucho Macho Man should NOT lose this race under any circumstances; he has proven he is one of the top 5 Kentucky Derby favorites this year and it is his race to lose.

Machen should be able to put something together for this race and come back from a disappointing Risen Star Stakes. Should Mucho Macho Man slack off and not give his best effort to press the pace then Machen will have enough energy to show us all how fast he can be which might be too close for comfort for Mucho Macho Man.

Wilkinson is the only horse that I think can have a chance of running with Mucho Macho Man from start to finish but will either tire from the pace or not have the speed to stay ahead of Machen or Elite Alex as these two will come on like freight trains, this is what they do. I think Wilkinson’s performance is tied to Mucho Macho Man and Mucho Macho Man is the rabbit for Wilkinson and will either pull him along for some money or leave him to be fed to the wolves.

Elite Alex is not proven at the distance and must jump from 1mile to 1 1/8^th miles, is coming out of the 12 spot, hasn’t had a win in 2011 and every reason that everyone else can think of not to bet him. But, with Calvin Borel on board these two are a perfect match coming from the back of the pack.

Cheers,

Jack