Speed arrested at Belmont
Handicapping occurs when something makes sense, or seems to.
Guessing is all the rest.
One thing making sense before the Belmont Stakes is that Animal Kingdom can’t break any worse than he did in Baltimore, when he appeared to have stage fright. If he breaks nearly that bad, he loses.
Races at a mile and a half favor stalking horses from the front half of the field, animals that take the lead at the top of the stretch and pull a semi-Secretariat down the long lane.
The biggest gambles here involve Shackleford and Nehro.
Will Shack get loose by 10 in a race lacking speed?
Nehro’s style fits, but he appeared to need resuscitation after the Derby.
A good way to handle horses that could finish first or last is to put them on top in some exotics, then forget about them. Like this:
Shackleford and Nehro over Santiva and Animal Kingdom.
A look at the field
1. Master of Hounds: (10-1) More like a trap than a contender.
2. Stay Thirsty: (20-1) My friends.
3. Ruler on Ice: (20-1) Thin.
4. Santiva: (15-1) On the up-tick, should be shorter than the one.
5. Brilliant Speed: (15-1) Misnamed, but seven straight improved Beyers.
6. Nehro: (4-1) Maiden winner back from spring break.
7. Monzon: (30-1) Beat a total of 13 horses in three wins.
8. Prime Cut: (15-1) Finished Peter Pan.
9. Animal Kingdom: (2-1) Broke on egg shells.
10. Mucho Macho Man: (10-1) Fired jockey.
11. Isn’t He Perfect: (30-1) Secured superb parking spot for owner.
12. Shackleford: (9-2) Leader of the pack.
Belmont picks
Animal Kingdom
2. Santiva
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Brilliant Speed
Originally Posted on ESPN
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About
Jay Cronley writes for the Tulsa Wolrd and is a columnist for ESPN. Besides being the author of several novels, Jay wrote the book, "Good Vibes" which was later adapted to the big screen in the movie "Let it Ride" starring Richard Dreyfuss.
Besides being an authority on handicapping and all that is horse racing, Jay manages to explain to the layperson and railbird in simple terms how anybody can lose their savings with a couple well executed bets at the track.