Graded Stakes earnings are used to determine the eligibility of a horse to make it into the starting gate in conjunction with their prepaid entry fee for the Triple Crown Nominations.

Every week I will be updating the Kentucky Derby Contenders ranked by Graded Stakes earnings for 2012 list so check back every weekend as we make yet another “Run for the Roses”.

After an impressive return to competition in an otherwise nondescript scrimmage last weekend at Gulfstream, Animal Kingdom, winner at age three of the Kentucky Derby but absent from the public eye since early last June, appears poised and ready for the Dubai World Cup.

While winning the fifth race on a Saturday at Gulfstream is unlikely to make the Animal Kingdom career highlight reel — though it did make ESPN’s Top 10 plays of the day to the delight of trainer Graham Motion — it was nevertheless important.

It has been a very long time since a Derby winner returned at age four and mounted a meaningful campaign, and in a year in which the reigning Horse of the Year, Havre de Grace, remains in training, Animal Kingdom’s success bodes well for the season at hand. Not since Giacomo, the longshot Derby winner of 2005, has a winner of America’s race managed even a single victory in the following season. Animal Kingdom with this victory has interrupted a negative trend and awakened the interest of those who saw him last spring as a potential, if ultimately unproven, dominant 3-year-old.

“I think when you have a Derby winner everybody owns a little piece of him,” Motion said on Saturday. “It may sound a little corny, but when you have a Derby winner, he’s a little bit the people’s horse and you have a responsibility. I think the reception he got was neat, and I’m glad we got to run him here.”

There is a singular mystique in winning the Kentucky Derby, a starring role in the unfolding American drama that is every year. Recent winners, however, have been exposed as horses of the moment not the ages, and even the best of recent decades have either disappeared into the breeding shed or for various reasons left legacies wanting futilely for substantiation. The tragedy and unrealized stardom of Barbaro overshadowed every other story that developed during 2006 and he may have been the one. We will never truly know. But the last Derby winner whose stardom endured at age four is arguably Alysheba, a 3-year-old of 1987.

While racing waits impatiently for the ascension of a breakthrough 3-year-old, its own Jeremy Lin, it may well be the returning stars that carry the day in 2012. Envision Animal Kingdom and Havre de Grace in the same field at Saratoga this summer — a returning Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old — a distinct possibility if all goes well in both camps in the coming months. The hind-leg injury suffered in the last Belmont Stakes that ended prematurely Animal Kingdom’s 3-year-old campaign may in time be considered a blessing in disguise if not for the horse and his connections, then for the fans and the sport at large in 2012. Smooth sailing last year may well have added Animal Kingdom to the roster of Kentucky Stallions, eliminating many potentially compelling propositions, the first of which is the March 31 Dubai World Cup. The misfortune of 2011 may be the good fortune of 2012.

A year that produced little in the way of definitive dominance may bear fruit in the still nascent season with the unfolding of 2012. Horses often improve markedly with maturity and others prominent last year remain in competition — Game On Dude, Acclamation, Royal Delta, Awesome Feather, Mucho Macho Man, Caleb’s Posse among them. Hymn Book has emerged as a force and likely will not be the year’s last surprise.

At this point, the focus is fixed as it should be upon 3-year-olds who have demonstrated the traits of a potential Kentucky Derby winner. So far, none has ignited a spark of genuine excitement. But regardless of what develops on the Triple Crown trail this is a year of compelling possibilities with the principal players of both sexes older than age three, a group of horses battle tested, proven and probably yet to realize their best days.

Several of those aforementioned have launched new campaigns with victories that promise more. Now, Dubai awaits Animal Kingdom. Stay tuned.

Originally Posted on ESPN

Here’s the catch. Sometimes, oftentimes, most times, lower Beyer numbers beat higher Beyer numbers.

Why would Beyer even publish numbers?

One, he had all the money he needed. Two, he enjoys glory. Three, the numbers are best advantaged by the super-creative.

How could a big, fat end-game number, based on a bunch of little numbers, turn out to be subjective? Such are the vagaries and mysteries and trickeries of sport. It’s like the numbers in “Moneyball” meaning different things to different people: It’s on-base percentages meaning as much as circuit clouts, and costing a lot less.

When it comes to a Beyer speed rating, every handicapper starts with the same number.

Some win.

Most lose.

When it comes to sports wagering, numbers get illusionary fast.

A Beyer number is an extension of an elementary speed rating — a percentage of a track record, biases and human elements. The Beyer number is brightly adjusted to create something like the perfect heavenly racetrack, seasonally and hourly adjusted for bias, to put all the horses on a computer screen, so to speak, to put a single number, a solitary value, on everything from a four furlong race in the sticks to a route in New York or California.

It’s a system.

A system number named for a person, like a Beyer or a Mulligan, is a strong endorsement of worth.

But no horse race system can pick a winner. Can it?

No sport has more luck in the mix than horse racing, particularly the contemporary Kentucky Derby, whose start looks more like a destruction derby than something classic. Nothing can dilute breeding or a Beyer number more quickly than a 20-horse field.

Some Beyer numbers are obviously inflated. Take this last weekend’s San Vicente Stakes. When you come across a field so short as to have no show wagering, subtract ten Beyer points.

Many Beyer numbers are self-explanatory. As is the case with football, you can take a look at the key match-ups and correctly guess what the Super Bowl point spread will be. Great running lines and fast easy victories equal high Beyer numbers.

Older horses trade Beyer numbers and victories like yawns, 90 this week and a win, 80 in three weeks and an average fifth against similar company, somebody please pass the carrots.

However, Beyer numbers have a way with three-year olds. Sometimes nothing highlights improvement quite as well.

It happens every spring, when you’ll take a Beyer line of 80 and 90 in a horse’s last two, over one that just hung up a couple of 95′s.

It is a little deflating to conclude that a Beyer number is more like a starting point than an end-all.

Originally Posted on ESPN

The British Horseracing Authority said Tuesday the new regulations add more “discretion and common sense” to the rule book. Starting Thursday, jockeys will no longer be given automatic penalties for using the whip eight times in flat races and nine over jump races.

Stewards will instead review the ride in question before deciding whether a penalty is warranted.

Paul Bittar, BHA chief executive, says “a rule which polices the use of the whip based solely on a fixed number of strikes is fundamentally flawed.”

The Professional Jockeys Association welcomed revisions to the regulations Tuesday, saying “the previous penalty structure was not appropriate.”

Ridden by Corey Nakatani for the first time, the 5-year-old City to City was fifth at the halfway point in the Grade 2 turf mile, moved up to fourth at the top of the stretch and held off Up In Time.

City to City won in 1:34.19 and paid $19, $7 and $5.20. Up In Time paid $9 and $6.20. Wild Mia was another half-length back in third and paid $5.80.

City to City, a 5-year-old daughter of City Zip trained and partly owned by Jerry Hollendorfer, earned $90,000 for the win, to increase her career earnings to $509,491.

A pair of Baffert-trained horses, Castaway and Secret Circle, won both divisions of the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday.

Jockey Rafael Bejarano rode both horses to the wins in the mile Derby prep race, which was split into two divisions after 21 horses were entered. Baffert wasn’t on hand for the wins, but the trainer left his mark on the day in front of a crowd of 29,313.

Castaway won the first of the two races at 6-1, pulling away down the stretch for a 3 3/4-length win over Jake Mo.

Secret Circle, a heavy favorite, followed that by holding off Scatman for a 1 1/2-length win in the second – potentially solidifying the colt’s Kentucky Derby hopes. Secret Circle, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner, lost for the first time in four career starts in his previous race – the mile $100,000 Sham Stakes on Jan. 7.

Secret Circle was shocked in the Sham Stakes as a 1-2 favorite by Out of Bounds after briefly leading down the stretch.

On Monday, the colt fared much better in his second attempt at a mile. He was neck-and-neck with Scatman before pulling away for the narrow win in 1:37.08.

“I think he worked harder on the front end of (the Sham Stakes), maybe, than today,” co-owner Karl Watson said. “Although, he had to work hard today, too.

“… That Out of Bounds is a good horse.”

Watson said a decision on the colt’s Kentucky Derby future was in Baffert’s hands.

“It looks like he’s got a lot of options,” Watson said.

Baffert has now won a Grade 3 prep race at Oaklawn in three straight years. Since Conveyance won the 2010 Southwest Stakes under the trainer’s guidance, Baffert is 12-9-1 at Oaklawn.

Watson and fellow co-owner Paul Weitman also owned another of Baffert’s Arkansas winners, Lookin at Lucky in the 2010 Rebel Stakes.

“It brought back some memories,” Watson said of Secret Circle’s win.

Secret Circle paid $3.20, $3.20 and 2.40, while Scatman paid $6.40 and $4.60. Third-place finisher Adirondack King paid $3.60 to show.

Castaway didn’t enter Monday’s race with quite the same hype as Secret Circle, but the colt left no doubt about his closing kick in the first of the Southwest Stakes races, the eighth on a 10-race card.

Castaway won his last time out at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 12. He started from the 11th position on Monday, but went out early with Majestic Stride before running away from the field down the stretch and finishing in 1:38.09.

“Everyone said we drew bad when we got the 11, but I wasn’t bothered by that,” assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes said. “You put them in from the rail out, so they’re not in the gate that long.”

Castaway paid $15.40, $9.40 and $7.20. Jake Mo paid $19 and $7.40, while Jerry Reckless – owned by country singer Toby Keith – paid $4.20 to show.

“I thought he won pretty easy,” Bejarano said. “I was right where I wanted to be, especially at the end.”

Oaklawn’s series of Kentucky Derby prep races continues with the $300,000 Rebel Stakes on March 17 and the $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 14.

The colt, trained by Bob Baffert, won his last time out at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 12. He went out early with Majestic Stride in the Southwest before running away from the field down the stretch.

Jake Mo finished second, followed by Jerry Reckless, who is owned by country singer Toby Keith.

Ridden by Rafael Bejarano, Castaway paid $15.40, $9.40 and $7.20. Jake Mo paid $19 and $7.40, while Jerry Reckless paid $4.20 to show.

The race was the first of two Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. With 21 entrants, Oaklawn split it into two divisions – the first time a Kentucky Derby prep has been split since 1993.

The 7-year-old rallied past Head Heart Hoof in the seven-horse field for New York breds. Law Enforcement won for the sixth time in 26 starts and for the first time since the 2009 Saratoga meet.

Ridden by Alan Garcia was trained by Mark Hennig, Law Enforcement trailed early but swung to the far outside turning for home. The time for the six furlongs was 1:10.95.

The winner paid $8.30, $3.90 and $2.50. Head Heart Hoof was second by a nose, returning $6 and $3.40. Be Bullish showed at $2.90.

Over the past 10 days, the French jockey landed the ride aboard early Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags, revealed he’ll be racing in New York shortly and flew cross-country to win the El Camino Real Derby in California aboard Daddy Nose Best.

And by the way, he also announced his engagement just before Valentine’s Day to Shea Mitchell, the daughter of California-based trainer Mike Mitchell. The wedding is set for December.

Union Rags remains No. 1 in the AP’s latest Run to the Roses Top 10 of Derby contenders, with Algorithms second. Both colts are expected to be in the field for Sunday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Ridden by Martin Garcia, Drill ran seven furlongs in 1:21.28 and paid $9.60 and $5 at 7-2 odds.

American Act returned $4, while 1-2 favorite Creative Cause was another length back in third. Let’s Get Crackin was fourth. There was no show wagering after Smoking G and Captain Obvious were scratched.

Drill trailed pacesetter American Act most of the way until taking a small lead with a furlong to go and barely holding off his rival under Garcia’s urging.

Drill is nominated to the Triple Crown series, but Baffert says he doesn’t think the colt wants to run the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1-4 miles.