Time-Adjusted Speed Rating Plays for Saturday

About a year ago, I began experimenting with the concept of time as it relates to athletic performance. In fact, I wrote about my findings in an article entitled “A Speed Handicapping Method That Actually Works!

In that article, I noted that speed figures — doesn’t matter the type (the old Daily Racing Form ratings, Beyer numbers, the “Figs”, etc.) — all suffer from the fact that they are merely a snapshot in time and, as such, may not be relevant today.

“What was true a month ago, may not be true today and what is true today may not be true a month from now,” I wrote.

Hence, I came up with what I called a time-adjusted speed rating (or “TASR” for short). As I show in the article, at a certain threshold, these ratings produced much better results than other speed figures I’ve tested over the years.


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So, today, I wanted to highlight some horses with superior TASRs running on Saturday. Of course, the risk of doing this is that the highlighted horses will perform abysmally and statistically-challenged handicappers will assume the whole concept of time-adjusted numbers is a waste of, well, time.

Even worse, the listed horses might perform ridiculously well and statistically-challenged handicappers will thus assume that the concept of time-adjusted numbers is the key to the mint.

It is neither. And I urge players to use their own judgement before betting on the following speed steeds:

2nd Alburquerque
6 furlongs (dirt)

Comments: Both MR JANIMAL and BLAZE’N PROSPECTOR look good in this sport and I would use them as keys in all your exotic wagers.


4th Assiniboia Downs
6 furlongs (dirt)

Comments: Not only does COOL BREWSKI have a recent speed edge, he looks to have a pace edge as well. I’d use him on top of exactas — or “exactors” for my Canadian friends — with ROYAL NICK, D’ POP and TOBILLS.


4th Belterra Park
5 furlongs (turf)

Comments: DAVE’S TEXAS LADY is 3-of-7 lifetime on the grass and comes off an impressive win against lesser at Mountaineer Park.


6th Belterra Park
6 ½ furlongs (dirt)

Comments: PUT A HEX ON MY EX looks like a solid key on top and bottom of exactas with the 1/1A entry, along with RED SLIPPERS and CLASSICAL MUSIC.


8th Ferndale
5 ½ furlongs (dirt)

Comments: In a race with a lot of hard-hitting campaigners, SASSY ROSE looks like the hardest hitting of them all — but make sure you get a decent price.


7th Finger Lakes
6 furlongs (dirt)

Comments: In a race without a lot of early zip, SO NOTED will need to work out a good trip, but the gelding came out running in his 6-year-old debut, which represented only the 15th start of his career.


6th Timonium
6 ½ furlongs (dirt)

Comments: OUR GABRIELLE heads a strong entry. With a vulnerable favorite in the next race, I’d key the daughter of Philanthropist in the double, among other wahers.


Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.