Horses That CANNOT Win the Kentucky Derby

In his master work, “Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping,” William Quirin called early speed the “universal bias.” And although its importance has diminished over the years with the advent of turf and synthetic surfaces, there is little doubt that the ability to contest the pace still is — and will continue to be — a valued commodity in thoroughbred racing.

Nowhere is this more evident than in America’s greatest race — the Kentucky Derby.

Despite a decline in the early speed rations (ESRs) of Derby winners over the years (if we’re “breeding for speed” as so many people believe, we’re doing a terrible job of it), the Run for the Roses still puts a premium on early foot — or, at least the ability to show early foot .

Kentucky Derby Pace

In his aforementioned book, Quirin details a simple, yet effective way to assess this ability (for a full explanation of his method, click HERE).

Quirin assigns each horse 0-8 points. Horses with zero points are those that typically lag in the back half of the field at the first call, whereas horses with eight points are generally on or near the pace.

A 2001 study by Ken Massa of Handicapping Technology & Research demonstrated how meaningful Quirin’s speed points are. Massa’s survey showed that, in non-maiden dirt routes on a dry track, horses with 6-8 Quirin speed points greatly outperformed expectations, with a median impact value of 1.26 and a median return on investment of -11 percent.

Horses with 0-2 Quirin speed points, on the other hand, produced a median IV of just 0.92 and a median ROI of -20 percent.

My own study of the Kentucky Derby from 1992-2015 produced similar results — with one notable exception:

Quirin Speed Points in the Kentucky Derby

Confirmed frontrunners, i.e. horses with eight Quirin speed points, have greatly underperformed at Churchill Downs — something that trainers Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert seemed acutely aware of when they elected to have their speedy charges Super Saver (2010) and American Pharoah (2015), respectively, come off the pace in their final preps.

In fact, leading at the first call in the last round of Derby prep races is generally a no-no for steeds with dreams of immortality. Only two of 44 horses that went wire-to-wire in their final pre-Derby start found similar success on the first Saturday in May; horses that led at the first call but lost their final prep are 0-for-30 since 1992.

Still, those meager stats pale in comparison to the 0-for-77 mark that horses with 0-1 Quirin speed points have accumulated over the past 24 years in Louisville (are you fans of Suddenbreakingnews listening?).

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Horses that recorded a positive ESR in their final Derby prep didn’t perform much better. Only Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Street Sense (2007) posed for pictures in the Churchill Downs winner’s circle after earning an ESR of +1 or greater immediately prior to the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.

And only Grindstone (1996) wore the roses after trailing by 7 ½ lengths or more at the first call of his final prep.

Conversely, horses that weren’t leading, but were within three lengths of the lead, at the first call in their last Derby prep have produced a 25 percent ROI since 1992.

Speed Ration Key Chart

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.