Category: Horse Racing Analysis

I hate excuses. In fact, one of the things that makes playing the ponies so appealing to me is that bad luck is irrelevant. Sure, one can whine and complain that their horse missed the …

Santa Anita Park’s feature race on Saturday is the San Carlos Stakes (G2), a seven-furlong affair for 3-year-olds and upward that lured American Anthem. The Bob Baffert trainee, who was once among the favorites for …

The last three winners of the Ohio Derby (GIII) used the Run for the Roses as a springboard to Thistledown’s signature race and, this year, two more who ran in Louisville on the first Saturday …

The last three winners of the Ohio Derby (GIII) used the Run for the Roses as a springboard to Thistledown’s signature race and, this year, two more who ran in Louisville on the first Saturday …

When I was kid in the 1970s and 80s, pot smoking was frowned upon; those that did it, had to sneak away to do so.  The funny part was when they came back and tried …

By Scott Dick Derby Day Racing A mere 3,693 miles separates Indiana Grand Racecourse, where Bucchero started his racing career, from Ascot. However, distance alone can’t describe the vast differences between the racing royalty of …

Of all the Triple Crown races, the Belmont Stakes is probably the most “normal” from a betting standpoint. In Louisville, the emphasis is on improvement — a quest for horses that are ready to deliver …

I am picking Justify to win the 2018 Belmont Stakes and become the 13th Triple Crown Champ. This will be extremely popular with race fans. However, I am not out for click-bait journalism here, I …

Many horseplayers dismiss horses that went off as the post-time favorite and lost in their previous race.  Often these horses are not worth playing back, yet there are occasions when they are worth backing. In …

People ask me all the time why I think pace analysis represents the last frontier of thoroughbred handicapping (OK, maybe not in those exact words, but you get the picture) and my answer is always …

Even though, historically, favorites in the Belmont Stakes win more often than favorites as a whole, they are wildly overbet, returning approximately $3.67 for every winning $2 wager, compared to about $4.50 for favorites in general (based …

Since 1960, just 10 of 279 non-Kentucky Derby starters have won the Preakness Stakes. That’s a 3.6 percent win rate, a 0.36 impact value (IV) and a 0.64 odds-based impact value (OBIV). Dr. William Quirin popularized …

Though the Kentucky Derby (GI) has officially been run one more time than the Preakness Stakes (GI), Maryland’s most prestigious race is actually older than it’s red-rose-adorned counterpart and, to many, carries it’s own prestige. …

Editor’s Note: This story was originally published on May 18, 2016. By now, you should all know what I think of statistics, how I use them, and how they help and hurt handicappers. I’m a …

For the 144th time on Saturday — always the first Saturday in May — 20 of the best 3-year-old thoroughbreds will parade to the gate for the annual running of the Kentucky Derby (GI), quite …