Many horseplayers dismiss horses that went off as the post-time favorite and lost in their previous race. Often these horses are not worth playing back, yet there are occasions when they are worth backing.
In my early data collection, I looked at all beaten favorites, regardless of lengths behind, finish position, or any other factors. The raw results were encouraging as shown in the table above. The win rate was 23 percent and a straight win bet on these horses was showing a loss of only 5.4 percent. This is still better than playing the post-time favorite in every race, but we can do better!
When we start looking at horses that finished second, third or fourth in their last race, the results start to show even more promise. Horses that failed as a favorite and finished second in that race show a much better win percentage at just about 32 percent and a small loss of -2.0 percent. (In this study, the initial 1,287 horses showed pitiful results at fifth place and beyond, so those horses were no longer tracked.)
By further filtering the second-place finishers in their last race, we arrive at what makes this a solid spot play:
- The horse must have been the post-time favorite in its last race, which was at least three weeks (21 days) ago.
- Horse must have finished second in its last race and been beaten by no more than four lengths.
- The horse must show that it has finished in the money at today’s race distance and over today’s surface (dirt, all-weather, turf).
- The horse must show a win percentage of 10% or greater over the course of its lifetime and in the last two years (both individually or combined).
- The horse must be dropping in class today.
- If there is more than one contender that meets the above criteria, play the horse that was beaten by fewer lengths last time out.
There can be any number of reasons that the horse lost as the favorite last out. Be sure to check the comments and see if the horse experienced a troubled trip. Quite possibly the horse may have stepped up in class and finds itself back at the right level today. Perhaps the pace was too fast for a horse that is a one-dimensional frontrunner.
While this angle typically produces short-priced plays, it does hit over half of the time. This is an excellent angle to use when keying a horse in an exacta or trifecta and/or when singling a horse in a multi-race wager such as a daily double or Pick 3, 4, 5 or 6. By coupling use of this spot play with your normal race handicapping and pace analysis, you will find that it hits consistently.