Race Profile: Breeders’ Cup Sprint

SPRINT
Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016 (1:21 PM PDT)

Purse: $1,500,000
Distance (surface): 6 furlongs (dirt)
*Race ESR: -11 (brisk/demanding)
*Race LSR: -9 (fair/good)

Winner’s Profile

Days Since Last Race: 35.0
Last-Race Odds: 2-1
Median BSF: 99.0
*Median ESR: -6 (moderate/brisk)
*Median LSR: -12 (poor/fair)
Running Style: M/F

  • Since 1997, horses with a last-race early speed ration (ESR) ranked among the top three in the field are 7-for-17 with an ROI of 79.41 percent in the Sprint when it’s been contested on dirt.

    Qualifiers (as of Oct. 29): LORD NELSON, DELTA BLUESMAN and NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR.

  • Horses coming off a layoff of 60 days or greater are just 2-of-35 in the Sprint since 1997 (0.71 IV, 0.52 OBIV).

    Qualifiers (as of Oct. 29): DREFONG and MASOCHISTIC.

  • 13 of the past 19 Sprint winners won their last race.

    Qualifiers (as of Oct. 29): A. P. INDIAN, DELTA BLUESMAN, DREFONG, JOKING, LORD NELSON, MASOCHISTIC and NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR.

  • 10 of the last 19 Sprint winners were favored in their last start.

    Qualifiers (as of Oct. 29): A. P. INDIAN, DELTA BLUESMAN, DREFONG, LORD NELSON, MASOCHISTIC and NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR.

STARTLING STAT: Since 1997, only one horse that competed for a purse of $400K or more in its last start won the Sprint (Speightstown, 2004).

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 29): DREFONG.

* Only the editions on a dirt surface were considered.

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.