Race of the Week: Harlan’s Holiday

Well, thanks to a dubious disqualification in last Saturday’s CashCall Futurity, the horse that I liked won the inaugural Race of the Week.

This Saturday, the handicapping waters get deeper, as the Race of the Week is the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream Park, which drew an evenly matched field of 9.

USR-Race-of-the-Week

Let’s take a look at the entrants:

1-RICHARD THE GREAT (10/1 morning line odds)
This once-promising son of Distorted Humor clearly has some issues, as he was away from the track for over two years prior to his reappearance at Gulfstream Park on April 23, 2017. His presence in this race is interesting for two reasons:

  • Although there are numerous other frontrunning types in the field, the projected pace for the Harlan’s Holiday is slow (-2 early speed ration) and this dude is 3-for-4 lifetime when he’s had the lead at the half-mile call.

In fact, the last time the Stanley Gold trainee led after recording a soft ESR, he put in arguably the best performance of his career, winning the 7-furlong Trinniberg Handicap by 7 ½ lengths on Aug. 12.

Richard-the-Great-PPs

  • The fact that noted “gate rider” Paco Lopez — four of his 11 graded stakes scores this year have come in wire-to-wire fashion — takes the mount, leads me to believe that this 5-year-old gelding will be a pace factor if nothing else. And that has implications for a number of other contenders in Saturday’s race.

Fair Odds: 10-1 

2-MR. JORDAN (4/1)
Speaking of those implications, I think this guy could be one of the causalities of a more aggressive Richard the Great. Last time, in the Millions Classic Preview Stakes, this son of Kantharos was allowed to set a slow pace (-1 ESR) — and he drew clear to win easily. I don’t see the same trip today, although I do think, on his best day, he can still win. But I’d insist on a fair price.

Fair Odds: 5-1 

3-DESTIN (5/2)
Todd Pletcher trainee appears to like longer distances — he was beaten a nose in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes (G1) as a 3-year-old and recently won the Marathon Stakes (G2) at 1 ¾ miles — but has a clear class edge against these. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a three-time graded stakes winner, with a couple of Grade II tallies to his credit. The only other Grade II winner in Saturday’s field is Flatlined and that came in the Ft. Lauderdale on the green.

Fair Odds: 7-2 

4-CONQUEST BIG E (15/1)
This is another one that is likely to be impacted by the tactics of the rail horse. Unlike Mr. Jordan, though, this guy appears to need the lead to show his best. Couple that with the fact that he’s not very fast and you have the recipe for an underlay, despite the fact that he figures to be long odds this weekend.

Fair Odds: 20-1 

5-PAGE MCKENNEY (6/1)
This guy is the poster child for patience. Since breaking his maiden in start number 13, Page McKenney has been a win machine, capturing half of his 40 starts, including 10 of 16 in his birth state of Pennsylvania.

That said, his last race was dull and he’ll need to turn things around to be a factor on Saturday.

Fair Odds: 9-2 

6-FRAMMENTO (20/1)
Hard to believe that this Nick Zito trainee was once a Kentucky Derby contender — if a third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a distant fourth-place showing in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) qualifies. His last win came nearly a year ago in an optional claiming event that produced subpar speed and pace figures. If he wins, he’ll do so without my money.

Fair Odds: 30-1 

7-FEAR THE COWBOY (7/2)
A while back, I discussed time-adjusted speed ratings, or TASRs for short, and this guy illustrates the concept beautifully. He may not be the fastest horse in the field, overall, but his recent figures — particularly his last one — make him a big-time contender in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile contest. And it doesn’t hurt that he’s won three of five starts over the Gulfstream Park oval and boasts solid late speed rations to boot.

Fair Odds: 3-1 

8-FLATLINED (6/1)
He won his only race on dirt in a one-mile event that was originally carded for the turf course at Ellis Park on July 30, 2016. The bad news is he did so while rating on a slow pace (-1 ESR) against just three rivals. From a speed and class standpoint, he fits… but I’m not sure how his late-closing style will play if the expected slow pace develops on Saturday.

On the plus side, Flatlined’s recent workouts have been sensational.

Fair Odds: 6-1 

9-JOSHUA’S COMPRISE (30/1)
No one can accuse trainer Barry Rose of being a glass-half-empty kind of guy. This gelding is 3-of-73 lifetime and last won a $12,500 claiming event — at 14-1, no less — in July. So, yeah, put him in a Grade III. Hey, it’s the season of miracles; maybe one can happen for Rose.

Fair Odds: 50-1 

Selections: 7-8-1

The Harlan’s Holiday is the ninth race on Gulfstream Park’s Saturday card, with an approximate post time of 4:06 p.m. ET.

***

Race of the Week: CashCall Futurity

By Derek Simon
Originally posted on December 8, 2017

Starting this week and continuing every Saturday, our sponsor is featuring a “Race of the Week”. Participants who wager at least $10 to win on the designated race will receive $10 in free casino chips — regardless of whether their wager wins or loses.

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(Click graphic for more details.)

This week’s Race of the Week is the CashCall Futurity, a Grade I event for two-year-olds run annually at Los Alamitos Racecourse (since 2014) and the now-defunct Hollywood Park (1981-2013). Although the CashCall has only produced one Kentucky Derby champ in its 36-year history — Real Quiet in 1998 — the race boasts an impressive roster of winners, including five colts that were named American Champion Three-Year-Old Male Horse the next year.

It’s also worth noting that two recent winners — Shared Belief (2014) and Mastery (last year)—were in the midst of stellar campaigns when they were injured. Mastery finished his career a perfect 5-for-5, while Shared Belief won 10 of his 12 lifetime starts.

This year, a field of five will face the starter and it’s fitting that Bob Baffert trains the top two morning line choices, as he’s won this race nine times, including all three that have been run at Los Alamitos.

CashCall Futurity Fun Facts (since 2007) 

  • The post-time favorite has won 8 times (80%).
  • 7 winners (70%) were among the top three at the first call (opening half-mile).
  • No winner has come from more than 2 ½ lengths back at the first call.
  • Trainer Bob Baffert has won 6 times (60%), including the last three in a row.
  • No horse has gone wire to wire. 

Here’s a look at the field:

CashCall-Futurity-Odds1-INSTILLED REGARD (4/1 morning line odds)
Highly regarded Jerry Hollendorfer trainee broke his maiden by 4 ¼ lengths last time, but he did so after setting a soft pace (-3 early speed ration) — a highly unlikely scenario on Saturday (the ESR par is -10). I also don’t like the fact that regular jockey Mike Smith bails on the son of Arch; yeah, it’s to ride one of the Baffert runners, but still…

Fair Odds: 12-1

2-FOR HIM (15/1)
The last horse to go wire-to-wire in the CashCall was Stormello in 2006 (although he was briefly headed by the runner-up, Liquidity, in deep stretch) when the race was still being run at Hollywood Park. Yet, by the looks of it, that’s what this guy will attempt to do this weekend. He’s had clear early leads in each of his last two starts and recorded an insane -17 ESR in his maiden-breaker at Del Mar on Aug. 9.

I actually think he has a great shot of holding on for a piece of the purse, as his last race — in the Zuma Beach on the grass — was very encouraging. He’s also the son of 2012 CashCall champion Violence.

Fair Odds: 10-1 

3-SOLOMINI (7/5)
Bob Baffert trainee was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and has earned speed figures that dwarf all but those turned in by the other Baffert entrant, McKinzie. The son of Curlin has lost ground down the stretch in both of his route tries and his late speed rations in those races were nothing special (-8 and -13), but wide trips have undoubtedly contributed to his lack of stretch punch.

Fair Odds: 2-1 

4-RUNAWAY GHOST (8/1)
Although his pedigree (107 Brisnet distance rating) suggests the son of Ghostzapper may be best-suited to sprints, I’m impressed by this guy’s LSRs. What’s more, his trainer, Michael Machowsky, has a 19 percent ROI with first-time routers. He’s worth a deuce or two at the right price.

Fair Odds: 8-1 

5-MCKINZIE (6/5)
Under normal circumstances, this son of Street Sense would be considered the “other Baffert”. After all, his stablemate has been runner-up in two Grade I route affairs, including the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, while this guy has a single maiden victory to his credit, but the work tab tells a different story.

McKinzie has trained at Santa Anita on the same day as Solomoni four times over the past 24 days — and he’s outworked his barn brother on three of those occasions. Couple that with an extremely impressive debut and I think you’re looking at the sixth consecutive winning CashCall favorite.

Fair Odds: 3-5 

My Selections: 5-3-2

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.