Derek’s Derby Dozen: The Ascension of El Areeb

Despite his impressive win in the Holy Bull, Irish War Cry was unable to crack my “Derby Dozen” list, which rates the top contenders for the 2017 Kentucky Derby on the basis of their Perceived Ability Ratings, or PAR.

This is not that surprising as form tends to lag a little bit. In other words a good or bad last race is likely to be reflected in the horse’s next start, as bettors react positively or negatively to its most recent performance.

Two horses that did move up in the rankings were Gunnevera (from ninth to eighth after his second-place finish in the Holy Bull) and El Areeb, who catapulted to 10th following his impressive victory in the Withers. No Dozing dropped off the list to make room for El Areeb.

Below is the complete list:

(As of 2/8/17)

(As of 2/8/17)

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Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.