Race Profile: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Friday, Nov. 3, 2017 (3:05 PM PDT)
Purse: $1,000,000
Distance (surface): 1 mile (dirt)
*Race ESR: -10 (brisk)
*Race LSR: -7 (fair/good)

Winner’s Profile

Days Since Last Race: 37.7
Last-Race Odds: 5.6-1
Median BSF: 93.7
*Median ESR: -5 (moderate)
*Median LSR: -7 (good/fair)
Running Style: M/F

Five of 40 horses that went to post at odds of 5-1 or greater in their final prep won the Dirt Mile, producing an ROI of 123.3 percent.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): COLONELSDARKTEMPER, GATO DEL ORO, GIANT EXPECTATIONS, MIDNIGHT STORM and WIN THE SPACE.

Horses that competed for a purse of less than $200,000 in their last race are zilch-for-23 in the Dirt Mile.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): AWESOME SLEW and IRON FIST.

Current form has not mattered much in the Dirt Mile, as seven of the 10 winners entered the race having lost their final prep.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): ACCELERATE, BATTLE OF MIDWAY, COLONELSDARKTEMPER, CUPID, GATO DEL ORO, GIANT EXPECTATIONS, MIDNIGHT STORM and WIN THE SPACE.

Entrants with a median LSR ranked among the top three in the field have won the Dirt Mile four times, returning profits across the board.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): MOR SPIRIT, PRACTICAL JOKE and SHARP AZTECA.

STARTLING STAT: Of the 13 horses that met the Dirt Mile speed par in at least one of their last two races, five won, returning $6.66 for every $2 bet to win.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): ACCELERATE, MOR SPIRIT and SHARP AZTECA.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

New-Money-Honey_Jim-Safford

2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Champion New Money Honey (photo by Jim Safford).

Friday, Nov. 3, 2017 (2:25 PM PDT)
Purse: $1,000,000
Distance (surface): 1 mile (turf)
Race ESR: -1 (moderate/soft
Race LSR: 0 (excellent)

Winner’s Profile

Days Since Last Race: 34.3
Last-Race Odds: 10.4-1
Median BSF: 91.6
Median ESR: +2 (soft)
Median LSR: +1 (excellent)
Running Style: M/R

Only one of 52 fillies with a Brisnet Turf Pedigree Rating of less than 110 has won the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Maram, 2008).

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): BEST PERFORMANCE, RUSHING FALL and SIGNIFICANT FORM.

Six of nine Juvenile Fillies Turf winners entered the race with a Pace Profile Report Class Rating ranked among the top four in the field.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): HAPPILY, SEPTEMBER, ULTIMA D and DIXIE MOON.

Of the 14 horses possessing a median LSR of +2 or greater coming into the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, three won — Tapitsfly (2009), Ladi Eli (2014) and New Money Honey (2016).

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): SIGNIFICANT FORM, ORBOLUTION and CAPLA TEMPTRESS.

Entrants with a last-race Form Rating of less than 75 percent are zero-for-31 in the Juvenile Turf Fillies and have hit the board (finished third or better) just four times.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): NOW YOU’RE TALKING, MADELINE, ORBOLUTION and GOODTHINGSTAKETIME.

STARTLING STAT: Of the 26 fillies with a median speed rating ranked among the top three in the field, four won, returning profits to win, place and show.

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 31): BEST PERFORMANCE, ULTIMA D, CAPLA TEMPTRESS, RUSHING FALL and FATALE BERE.

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.